TẠI SAO BẠN NÊN ĐẦU TƯ CỔ PHIẾU SAU TẾT ?? | ĐẦU TƯ CHỨNG KHOÁN

TL;DR

Key insights

Post-Tet Market Dynamics Favor Investment

• Historically, the stock market tends to be more active and has a higher probability of booming after the Tet holiday compared to the period before Tet.
• This cyclical pattern suggests that the period following Tet presents a more favorable environment for stock investments.
• Understanding these seasonal trends can help investors time their market entry and exit strategies more effectively.

Macroeconomic Factors Drive Seasonal Market Cycles

• The cyclical nature of the Vietnamese economy, influenced by import/export cycles and seasonal demand, significantly impacts monetary policy.
• Increased demand for imports (raw materials, consumer goods) before Tet leads to currency pressure and potentially tighter monetary policy.
• Conversely, after Tet, as export orders are fulfilled and economic activity normalizes, monetary policy tends to ease, creating a more favorable investment climate.

Vietnam's Export-Driven Economy Creates Cyclical Patterns

• Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on exports, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture, making it sensitive to global demand cycles.
• Export orders typically peak in Q4 and Q1, driving import demand for raw materials and components, which in turn affects currency and inflation.
• This reliance on export orders creates a predictable seasonality in economic activity and, consequently, in financial markets.

Government Policy and Investment Cycles Shape Market Performance

• Government policies, such as focusing on state-owned enterprises and public investment in 2026, can significantly influence market dynamics.
• While external factors like inflation and exchange rates are less of a concern in 2026, the government's proactive management of credit and investment is a key driver.
• The shift towards increased public investment and controlled credit flow aims to manage economic growth and prevent overheating, impacting market liquidity and investor sentiment.

Key moments

• 00:00Introduction: Statistical analysis suggests the stock market is typically more active and prone to growth after the Tet holiday compared to the period before.
• 01:25Macroeconomic Cycles: Discussion on the cyclical nature of the economy, influenced by monetary policy, inflation, and exchange rates, particularly around the Tet period.
• 03:15Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: Analysis of how interest rates tend to rise before Tet and ease afterward, impacting market liquidity.
• 05:10Inflation and Exchange Rates: Examination of how inflation and exchange rate pressures typically increase in Q4 and Q1, influencing monetary policy decisions.
• 07:00Export-Driven Economy: Explanation of Vietnam's reliance on exports and how seasonal demand for goods creates cyclical patterns in the economy.
• 09:00Import Cycles and Currency Pressure: How increased imports before Tet create demand for USD, leading to currency pressure and tighter monetary policy.
• 11:00GDP Growth and Export Dominance: Overview of Vietnam's economic structure, highlighting the importance of exports and manufacturing.
• 13:00Global Trade Shifts: Impact of international trade dynamics, like the 'China Plus One' strategy, on Vietnam's export growth.
• 15:00PMI Index and Order Cycles: Analysis of the PMI index showing cyclical patterns in export orders, peaking in Q4 and Q1.
• 17:00Import Dependency: Vietnam's significant reliance on imports, especially from China, for raw materials and consumer goods.
• 19:00Import Volume Fluctuations: Data showing spikes in import volumes during Q4 and Q1, correlating with seasonal production needs.
• 21:00Post-Tet Economic Easing: The trend of monetary policy easing and reduced currency pressure after Tet, creating a more favorable environment.
• 23:00Market Liquidity Trends: Observation of declining market liquidity in Q4 and before Tet, with recovery expected post-Tet.
• 25:002026 Market Specifics: Analysis of 2026 market performance, noting that despite external factors being less concerning, government intervention and past success in 2025 influence the outlook.
• 27:00Government Intervention in 2026: Discussion on increased state control over credit and focus on public investment projects as key drivers for 2026.
• 29:00Cyclical Patterns Persist: Despite unique factors in 2026, the underlying cyclical patterns of the economy and market are expected to continue.
• 30:00Investment Opportunities Post-Tet: The expectation that Q2 and Q3 post-Tet will offer more favorable investment conditions and potential for profit.
• 31:00Sector Focus for 2026: Highlighting retail as a potentially promising sector for investment in 2026, alongside traditional sectors like banking and real estate.
• 33:00Concluding Outlook: Confidence in a strong 2026, with expectations of increased liquidity and market activity, particularly in the second and third quarters.