WEEKLY REVIEW 09/02/26 BTC, SPY, GOLD, OIL, ETH

TL;DR

Key insights

Bitcoin's Bear Market Outlook: Bounce or Further Decline?

• Bitcoin has reached the 250-day weekly EMA and oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce.
• The current bounce may be part of an A-wave down in a bear market, with a possibility of one more sweep of the lows before a larger bounce.
• The year-long bear market model suggests a bounce into late spring/early summer, followed by a decline towards year-end.
• Alternative count suggests a completed bottom, but historical precedent favors a traditional bear market.

SPY Analysis: Mixed Signals and Trading Opportunities

• Monthly timeframe shows overbought conditions without bearish divergence, while the weekly timeframe exhibits bearish divergence and weakening momentum.
• The market is treading water with sideways movement and higher highs/lows, but with decreasing volume and weakening MACD.
• Despite mixed signals, the current range offers tradable opportunities with defined risk for both long and short positions.
• A bullish 'melt-up' scenario is possible if the SPY breaks key resistance levels, but a bearish ending diagonal or deep wave 2 correction remains a concern.

Gold Market: Potential Pivot and Long-Term Bullish Outlook

• While silver showed a violent pivot, gold's daily timeframe appears more damaged than its weekly chart.
• There's a possibility of a pivot in gold, with a potential for an orderly correction and a deep retracement.
• The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with the possibility of a secular, multi-generational bull market.
• Two main counts exist: a potential temporary top followed by further retracement before new highs, or a fifth wave commodity melt-up.

Oil Sector: Equities Leading the Way Amidst Divergence

• The speaker has been bullish on oil equities for months, with exposure now at a satisfactory level.
• Oil equities like Exxon are making new highs, significantly diverging from the lagging oil price.
• This divergence suggests equities may be anticipating an oil price increase before it materializes.
• While the overall thesis is bullish for oil, the speaker acknowledges the possibility of being early or wrong, emphasizing risk management.

Ethereum's Complex Chart: Uncertainty and Multiple Possibilities

• Ethereum's chart is described as a 'mess' due to sideways movement since 2021, unlike Bitcoin's clearer trend.
• Key possibilities include a large flat pattern, a wonky expanding diagonal, or a developing extension.
• The speaker is torn due to the lack of clear signals and the divergence from Bitcoin's more defined movements.
• A bearish scenario involves a significant crash below $900, while a bullish scenario points to a potential 'melt-up' or a leading diagonal.

Key moments

• 00:00Introduction and disclaimer.
• 00:55Bitcoin analysis: Discussing oversold conditions, potential bounce, and bear market scenarios.
• 12:05SPY analysis: Examining monthly and weekly timeframes, mixed signals, and potential trading ranges.
• 22:10Gold analysis: Discussing potential pivots, long-term bullish outlook, and corrective patterns.
• 31:12Oil sector analysis: Highlighting the divergence between oil equities and oil prices, with a bullish stance on equities.
• 39:40Ethereum analysis: Detailing the complex and uncertain chart patterns, with multiple bullish and bearish possibilities.